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Editor's note: The fourth plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee will be held in Beijing in October, a decision made at the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau meeting on July 30. To mark that, CGTN has launched a new series, "China's economy: A new chapter unfolds." This is the fourth article in the series, focusing on China's economic performance, including exports, consumption, industrial production and high-tech industries. Shen Jianguang, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is chief economist of JD.com. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

At their meeting on July 30, the Communist Party of China's Central Committee Political Bureau took the key decision to begin "research and formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" for the period 2026 to 2030.  

In the face of external challenges, China has already implemented more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies. As a result, economic performance remains stable with steady improvement. In the first half (H1) of 2025, the GDP expanded by 5.3 percent year-on-year. which is 0.3 percentage point higher in both H1 of 2024 and the entire year. Exports, consumption, industrial production and the development of high-tech industries show strong momentum and resilience.

China's better-than-expected 5.3 percent growth, despite the ongoing global uncertainty, can be attributed to four main factors.

Export performance exceeds expectations

Despite the impact of U.S. "reciprocal tariffs," China's exports – measured in renminbi – grew by 7.2 percent year on year in H1 2025, driven by front-loaded shipments, re-exports, expansion of trade partners and progress in China-U.S. trade talks.

By region, exports to Africa, India, ASEAN and Central Asia all registered double-digit growth, effectively offsetting the decline in U.S. shipments and reinforcing China's strategy to diversify its trade partnerships. By product category, mechanical and electrical products continued to anchor export growth.

With the U.S. imposed additional tariffs on other countries from August 1, China's relative tariff disadvantage will narrow, assuming the current China-U.S. tariffs remain unchanged. This may offer some advantage to Chinese exports. Therefore, despite global uncertainties, export performance in H2 may still exceed market expectations.

Trade-in policies stimulate consumption

Policies encouraging consumers to trade in old products for new ones continue to take effect. Total retail sales of consumer goods rose 5.0 percent year on year in H1 of 2025, outperforming the 4.6 percent growth in the first quarter (Q1) and well above last year's full-year growth of 3.5 percent. Retail sales of goods – making up nearly 90 percent of total consumption – grew by around 5 percent.

The central government allocated 162 billion RMB (about $22.5 billion) in January and April to assist local governments implement trade-in programs in Q1 and Q2. Moreover, an additional 138 billion RMB will be distributed in batches during Q3 and Q4. Such measures would ensure trade-in policies continuing to bolster consumption growth in H2 of the year.

Steady growth in industrial production

In H1 2025, the value-added output of large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 6.4 percent year on year, accelerating by 0.6 percentage point from last year's full-year growth. Manufacturing rose by 7 percent, with 38 out of 41 major industrial sectors registering year-on-year growth. It suggests that 92.7 percent of China's industrial categories recorded expansion in H1.

Resilient exports played a key role in supporting industrial output. Despite external uncertainties, the export delivery value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 4.2 percent year on year. The booming global shipbuilding market fueled a 24 percent rise in delivery value for rail, ship and aerospace equipment industry, while the rising quality of industrial development boosted exports of specialized equipment industry by 9.6 percent.

Policies also supported industrial output through domestic demand. For example, equipment upgrade policies led to strong growth in the production of packaging equipment, steam turbines and computer numerical control machinery.

Progress of high-tech industries across nation

Across regions, local governments are advancing the development of high-tech industries tailored to local strengths, accelerating technological innovation and industrial transformation. New industries, technologies and business models continue to thrive. From the DeepSeek AI model to humanoid robots, aerospace innovations and autonomous driving technologies, a series of breakthroughs is fueling new momentum for economic growth.

Value-added output of high-tech manufacturing rose 9.5 percent year on year, contributing 23.3 percent to overall industrial growth. Aerospace and aircraft manufacturing grew by 8.4 percent, while electronics and communications equipment increased by 12.7 percent.

Value-added output of digital product manufacturing rose 9.9 percent outpacing total industry growth by 3.5 percentage points. Intelligent device manufacturing and electronic components grew by 14.9 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively.

Green and low-carbon products stood out. Production of new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells grew by 36.2 percent, 53.3 percent and 18.2 percent, respectively, while wind turbine output soared by 72 percent.

Toward sustained and stable recovery

China's economy remained resilient in H1 2025, delivering strong performance in several areas. Looking ahead, if progress is made in three key areas, the economy is well positioned to improve further in H2.

In the short term, the government should expand and extend the trade-in policy to cover services. Restrictions on consumption should be relaxed to create a more supportive environment, and paid leave policies should be better implemented to increase leisure time.

In the long run, reforms to the social security system should be accelerated, including increasing the proportion of state assets allocated to individual pension accounts. Household income, particularly in rural areas, should be enhanced by reforming the household registration system and rural land transfer mechanisms and by improving access to public services and boosting property income.

Restrictions on property purchases in major cities should be fully lifted and property spending further reduced. Lowering existing mortgage rates and housing fund loan rates, along with accelerating urban village and dilapidated housing renovation projects, would help release demand. 

A real estate stabilization fund, possibly financed through special treasury bonds, could be established to absorb surplus land and unsold housing, reduce inventory, improve liquidity for developers, and help the market bottom out. 

In addition to boosting consumption and domestic demand, clearing government arrears to private companies should be prioritized. For example, more local special bond quotas could be used to repay arrears, or eligible arrears could be reclassified and included in implicit debt swaps. This would help relieve cash flow stress for firms.

Moreover, a comprehensive plan to address "involution-style" cutthroat competition should be rolled out to correct market failures, restore price levels, improve corporate profitability and stimulate long-term innovation for high-quality growth.

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